How the market works from the insideThe mechanism retail never sees.

Data-driven analysis of IPOs, cycles and market traps. No verdicts, no hype: the mechanism, the numbers, and what has historically come next.

Pablo Muñoz3 analysesupd. 13 Jul 2026RSS

3 essays

IPOs, cycles and market traps

How an IPO allocation is really carved up, why picking the winner is not enough, and what the data says about the age of a bull market.

  • The $165 between you and the insiders

    Cerebras went public at $185. Your first available price was $350. Anatomy of the mechanism that turns a "historic IPO debut" into the retail investor's bill.

    Pablo Muñoz3 min

  • You picked the winner and still lost

    Across the 30 largest tech IPOs (2012-2024), the average year-1 drawdown was −55%. And here's the uncomfortable part; even picking the absolute winner, the path punishes the average investor.

    Pablo Muñoz3 min

  • "It's gone up too long" is not an argument, it's a bias

    The current bull market is 1,326 days old. The historical average since 1949 is 1,965. Cycles don't end because they age; they end for causes. Confusing price with time is the silent mistake.

    Pablo Muñoz2 min