3 min readiposmarket mechanics
The $165 between you and the insiders
Cerebras went public at $185. Your first available price was $350. Anatomy of the mechanism that turns a "historic IPO debut" into the retail investor's bill.
Blog
The mechanism retail never sees
Data-driven analysis of IPOs, cycles and market traps. No verdicts, no hype: the mechanism, the numbers, and what has historically come next.
3 min readiposinvestor math
You picked the winner and still lost
Across the 30 largest tech IPOs (2012-2024), the average year-1 drawdown was −55%. And here's the uncomfortable part — even picking the absolute winner, the path punishes the average investor.
2 min readcyclesinvestor psychology
"It's gone up too long" is not an argument, it's a bias
The current bull market is 1,326 days old. The historical average since 1949 is 1,965. Cycles don't end because they age — they end for causes. Confusing price with time is the silent mistake.